Serveur d'exploration sur la COVID chez les séniors

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Development and validation of a risk stratification model for screening suspected cases of COVID-19 in China.

Identifieur interne : 000663 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000662; suivant : 000664

Development and validation of a risk stratification model for screening suspected cases of COVID-19 in China.

Auteurs : Jing Ma [République populaire de Chine] ; Xiaowei Shi [République populaire de Chine] ; Weiming Xu [République populaire de Chine] ; Feifei Lv [République populaire de Chine] ; Jian Wu [République populaire de Chine] ; Qiaoling Pan [République populaire de Chine] ; Jinfeng Yang [République populaire de Chine] ; Jiong Yu [République populaire de Chine] ; Hongcui Cao [République populaire de Chine] ; Lanjuan Li [République populaire de Chine]

Source :

RBID : pubmed:32727933

Descripteurs français

English descriptors

Abstract

How to quickly identify high-risk populations is critical to epidemic control. We developed and validated a risk prediction model for screening SARS-CoV-2 infection in suspected cases with an epidemiological history. A total of 1019 patients, ≥13 years of age, who had an epidemiological history were enrolled from fever clinics between January 2020 and February 2020. Among 103 (10.11%) cases of COVID-19 were confirmed. Multivariable analysis summarized four features associated with increased risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection, summarized in the mnemonic COVID-19-REAL: radiological evidence of pneumonia (1 point), eosinophils < 0.005 × 109/L (1 point), age ≥ 32 years (2 points), and leukocytes < 6.05 × 109 /L (1 point). The area under the ROC curve for the training group was 0.863 (95% CI, 0.813 - 0.912). A cut-off value of less than 3 points for COVID-19-REAL was assigned to define the low-risk population. Only 10 (2.70%) of 371 patients were proved to be SARS-CoV-2 positive, with a negative predictive value of 0.973. External validation was similar. This study provides a simple, practical, and robust screening model, COVID-19-REAL, able to identify populations at high risk for SARS-CoV-2 infection.

DOI: 10.18632/aging.103694
PubMed: 32727933
PubMed Central: PMC7425460


Affiliations:


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Le document en format XML

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<term>Aged (MeSH)</term>
<term>Aged, 80 and over (MeSH)</term>
<term>Betacoronavirus (MeSH)</term>
<term>China (MeSH)</term>
<term>Coronavirus Infections (blood)</term>
<term>Coronavirus Infections (diagnosis)</term>
<term>Coronavirus Infections (pathology)</term>
<term>Female (MeSH)</term>
<term>Humans (MeSH)</term>
<term>Male (MeSH)</term>
<term>Middle Aged (MeSH)</term>
<term>Pandemics (MeSH)</term>
<term>Pneumonia, Viral (blood)</term>
<term>Pneumonia, Viral (diagnosis)</term>
<term>Pneumonia, Viral (pathology)</term>
<term>Predictive Value of Tests (MeSH)</term>
<term>Risk Assessment (methods)</term>
<term>Risk Factors (MeSH)</term>
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<term>Adulte (MeSH)</term>
<term>Adulte d'âge moyen (MeSH)</term>
<term>Appréciation des risques (méthodes)</term>
<term>Betacoronavirus (MeSH)</term>
<term>Chine (MeSH)</term>
<term>Facteurs de risque (MeSH)</term>
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<term>Infections à coronavirus (anatomopathologie)</term>
<term>Infections à coronavirus (diagnostic)</term>
<term>Infections à coronavirus (sang)</term>
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<term>Sujet âgé de 80 ans ou plus (MeSH)</term>
<term>Valeur prédictive des tests (MeSH)</term>
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<div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">How to quickly identify high-risk populations is critical to epidemic control. We developed and validated a risk prediction model for screening SARS-CoV-2 infection in suspected cases with an epidemiological history. A total of 1019 patients, ≥13 years of age, who had an epidemiological history were enrolled from fever clinics between January 2020 and February 2020. Among 103 (10.11%) cases of COVID-19 were confirmed. Multivariable analysis summarized four features associated with increased risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection, summarized in the mnemonic COVID-19-REAL: radiological evidence of pneumonia (1 point), eosinophils < 0.005 × 10
<sup>9</sup>
/L (1 point), age ≥ 32 years (2 points), and leukocytes < 6.05 × 10
<sup>9</sup>
/L (1 point). The area under the ROC curve for the training group was 0.863 (95% CI, 0.813 - 0.912). A cut-off value of less than 3 points for COVID-19-REAL was assigned to define the low-risk population. Only 10 (2.70%) of 371 patients were proved to be SARS-CoV-2 positive, with a negative predictive value of 0.973. External validation was similar. This study provides a simple, practical, and robust screening model, COVID-19-REAL, able to identify populations at high risk for SARS-CoV-2 infection.</div>
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<Month>08</Month>
<Day>13</Day>
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<Month>08</Month>
<Day>27</Day>
</DateRevised>
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<ISSN IssnType="Electronic">1945-4589</ISSN>
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<Volume>12</Volume>
<Issue>14</Issue>
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<Month>07</Month>
<Day>29</Day>
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<Title>Aging</Title>
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<AbstractText>How to quickly identify high-risk populations is critical to epidemic control. We developed and validated a risk prediction model for screening SARS-CoV-2 infection in suspected cases with an epidemiological history. A total of 1019 patients, ≥13 years of age, who had an epidemiological history were enrolled from fever clinics between January 2020 and February 2020. Among 103 (10.11%) cases of COVID-19 were confirmed. Multivariable analysis summarized four features associated with increased risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection, summarized in the mnemonic COVID-19-REAL: radiological evidence of pneumonia (1 point), eosinophils < 0.005 × 10
<sup>9</sup>
/L (1 point), age ≥ 32 years (2 points), and leukocytes < 6.05 × 10
<sup>9</sup>
/L (1 point). The area under the ROC curve for the training group was 0.863 (95% CI, 0.813 - 0.912). A cut-off value of less than 3 points for COVID-19-REAL was assigned to define the low-risk population. Only 10 (2.70%) of 371 patients were proved to be SARS-CoV-2 positive, with a negative predictive value of 0.973. External validation was similar. This study provides a simple, practical, and robust screening model, COVID-19-REAL, able to identify populations at high risk for SARS-CoV-2 infection.</AbstractText>
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<li>République populaire de Chine</li>
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<region>
<li>Zhejiang</li>
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<settlement>
<li>Hangzhou</li>
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<orgName>
<li>Université de Zhejiang</li>
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<country name="République populaire de Chine">
<region name="Zhejiang">
<name sortKey="Ma, Jing" sort="Ma, Jing" uniqKey="Ma J" first="Jing" last="Ma">Jing Ma</name>
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