Development and validation of a risk stratification model for screening suspected cases of COVID-19 in China.
Identifieur interne : 000663 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000662; suivant : 000664Development and validation of a risk stratification model for screening suspected cases of COVID-19 in China.
Auteurs : Jing Ma [République populaire de Chine] ; Xiaowei Shi [République populaire de Chine] ; Weiming Xu [République populaire de Chine] ; Feifei Lv [République populaire de Chine] ; Jian Wu [République populaire de Chine] ; Qiaoling Pan [République populaire de Chine] ; Jinfeng Yang [République populaire de Chine] ; Jiong Yu [République populaire de Chine] ; Hongcui Cao [République populaire de Chine] ; Lanjuan Li [République populaire de Chine]Source :
- Aging [ 1945-4589 ] ; 2020.
Descripteurs français
- KwdFr :
- Adulte (MeSH), Adulte d'âge moyen (MeSH), Appréciation des risques (méthodes), Betacoronavirus (MeSH), Chine (MeSH), Facteurs de risque (MeSH), Femelle (MeSH), Humains (MeSH), Infections à coronavirus (anatomopathologie), Infections à coronavirus (diagnostic), Infections à coronavirus (sang), Mâle (MeSH), Pandémies (MeSH), Pneumopathie virale (anatomopathologie), Pneumopathie virale (diagnostic), Pneumopathie virale (sang), Sujet âgé (MeSH), Sujet âgé de 80 ans ou plus (MeSH), Valeur prédictive des tests (MeSH).
- MESH :
- anatomopathologie : Infections à coronavirus, Pneumopathie virale.
- diagnostic : Infections à coronavirus, Pneumopathie virale.
- méthodes : Appréciation des risques.
- sang : Infections à coronavirus, Pneumopathie virale.
- Adulte, Adulte d'âge moyen, Betacoronavirus, Chine, Facteurs de risque, Femelle, Humains, Mâle, Pandémies, Sujet âgé, Sujet âgé de 80 ans ou plus, Valeur prédictive des tests.
- Wicri :
- geographic : République populaire de Chine.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- Adult (MeSH), Aged (MeSH), Aged, 80 and over (MeSH), Betacoronavirus (MeSH), China (MeSH), Coronavirus Infections (blood), Coronavirus Infections (diagnosis), Coronavirus Infections (pathology), Female (MeSH), Humans (MeSH), Male (MeSH), Middle Aged (MeSH), Pandemics (MeSH), Pneumonia, Viral (blood), Pneumonia, Viral (diagnosis), Pneumonia, Viral (pathology), Predictive Value of Tests (MeSH), Risk Assessment (methods), Risk Factors (MeSH).
- MESH :
- geographic : China.
- blood : Coronavirus Infections, Pneumonia, Viral.
- diagnosis : Coronavirus Infections, Pneumonia, Viral.
- methods : Risk Assessment.
- pathology : Coronavirus Infections, Pneumonia, Viral.
- Adult, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Betacoronavirus, Female, Humans, Male, Middle Aged, Pandemics, Predictive Value of Tests, Risk Factors.
Abstract
How to quickly identify high-risk populations is critical to epidemic control. We developed and validated a risk prediction model for screening SARS-CoV-2 infection in suspected cases with an epidemiological history. A total of 1019 patients, ≥13 years of age, who had an epidemiological history were enrolled from fever clinics between January 2020 and February 2020. Among 103 (10.11%) cases of COVID-19 were confirmed. Multivariable analysis summarized four features associated with increased risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection, summarized in the mnemonic COVID-19-REAL: radiological evidence of pneumonia (1 point), eosinophils < 0.005 × 109/L (1 point), age ≥ 32 years (2 points), and leukocytes < 6.05 × 109 /L (1 point). The area under the ROC curve for the training group was 0.863 (95% CI, 0.813 - 0.912). A cut-off value of less than 3 points for COVID-19-REAL was assigned to define the low-risk population. Only 10 (2.70%) of 371 patients were proved to be SARS-CoV-2 positive, with a negative predictive value of 0.973. External validation was similar. This study provides a simple, practical, and robust screening model, COVID-19-REAL, able to identify populations at high risk for SARS-CoV-2 infection.
DOI: 10.18632/aging.103694
PubMed: 32727933
PubMed Central: PMC7425460
Affiliations:
Links toward previous steps (curation, corpus...)
Le document en format XML
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<author><name sortKey="Shi, Xiaowei" sort="Shi, Xiaowei" uniqKey="Shi X" first="Xiaowei" last="Shi">Xiaowei Shi</name>
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<author><name sortKey="Cao, Hongcui" sort="Cao, Hongcui" uniqKey="Cao H" first="Hongcui" last="Cao">Hongcui Cao</name>
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<author><name sortKey="Li, Lanjuan" sort="Li, Lanjuan" uniqKey="Li L" first="Lanjuan" last="Li">Lanjuan Li</name>
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<series><title level="j">Aging</title>
<idno type="eISSN">1945-4589</idno>
<imprint><date when="2020" type="published">2020</date>
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<profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>Adult (MeSH)</term>
<term>Aged (MeSH)</term>
<term>Aged, 80 and over (MeSH)</term>
<term>Betacoronavirus (MeSH)</term>
<term>China (MeSH)</term>
<term>Coronavirus Infections (blood)</term>
<term>Coronavirus Infections (diagnosis)</term>
<term>Coronavirus Infections (pathology)</term>
<term>Female (MeSH)</term>
<term>Humans (MeSH)</term>
<term>Male (MeSH)</term>
<term>Middle Aged (MeSH)</term>
<term>Pandemics (MeSH)</term>
<term>Pneumonia, Viral (blood)</term>
<term>Pneumonia, Viral (diagnosis)</term>
<term>Pneumonia, Viral (pathology)</term>
<term>Predictive Value of Tests (MeSH)</term>
<term>Risk Assessment (methods)</term>
<term>Risk Factors (MeSH)</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="KwdFr" xml:lang="fr"><term>Adulte (MeSH)</term>
<term>Adulte d'âge moyen (MeSH)</term>
<term>Appréciation des risques (méthodes)</term>
<term>Betacoronavirus (MeSH)</term>
<term>Chine (MeSH)</term>
<term>Facteurs de risque (MeSH)</term>
<term>Femelle (MeSH)</term>
<term>Humains (MeSH)</term>
<term>Infections à coronavirus (anatomopathologie)</term>
<term>Infections à coronavirus (diagnostic)</term>
<term>Infections à coronavirus (sang)</term>
<term>Mâle (MeSH)</term>
<term>Pandémies (MeSH)</term>
<term>Pneumopathie virale (anatomopathologie)</term>
<term>Pneumopathie virale (diagnostic)</term>
<term>Pneumopathie virale (sang)</term>
<term>Sujet âgé (MeSH)</term>
<term>Sujet âgé de 80 ans ou plus (MeSH)</term>
<term>Valeur prédictive des tests (MeSH)</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" type="geographic" xml:lang="en"><term>China</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="anatomopathologie" xml:lang="fr"><term>Infections à coronavirus</term>
<term>Pneumopathie virale</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="blood" xml:lang="en"><term>Coronavirus Infections</term>
<term>Pneumonia, Viral</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="diagnosis" xml:lang="en"><term>Coronavirus Infections</term>
<term>Pneumonia, Viral</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="diagnostic" xml:lang="fr"><term>Infections à coronavirus</term>
<term>Pneumopathie virale</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="methods" xml:lang="en"><term>Risk Assessment</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="méthodes" xml:lang="fr"><term>Appréciation des risques</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="pathology" xml:lang="en"><term>Coronavirus Infections</term>
<term>Pneumonia, Viral</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="sang" xml:lang="fr"><term>Infections à coronavirus</term>
<term>Pneumopathie virale</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="en"><term>Adult</term>
<term>Aged</term>
<term>Aged, 80 and over</term>
<term>Betacoronavirus</term>
<term>Female</term>
<term>Humans</term>
<term>Male</term>
<term>Middle Aged</term>
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<term>Predictive Value of Tests</term>
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<term>Betacoronavirus</term>
<term>Chine</term>
<term>Facteurs de risque</term>
<term>Femelle</term>
<term>Humains</term>
<term>Mâle</term>
<term>Pandémies</term>
<term>Sujet âgé</term>
<term>Sujet âgé de 80 ans ou plus</term>
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<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">How to quickly identify high-risk populations is critical to epidemic control. We developed and validated a risk prediction model for screening SARS-CoV-2 infection in suspected cases with an epidemiological history. A total of 1019 patients, ≥13 years of age, who had an epidemiological history were enrolled from fever clinics between January 2020 and February 2020. Among 103 (10.11%) cases of COVID-19 were confirmed. Multivariable analysis summarized four features associated with increased risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection, summarized in the mnemonic COVID-19-REAL: radiological evidence of pneumonia (1 point), eosinophils < 0.005 × 10<sup>9</sup>
/L (1 point), age ≥ 32 years (2 points), and leukocytes < 6.05 × 10<sup>9</sup>
/L (1 point). The area under the ROC curve for the training group was 0.863 (95% CI, 0.813 - 0.912). A cut-off value of less than 3 points for COVID-19-REAL was assigned to define the low-risk population. Only 10 (2.70%) of 371 patients were proved to be SARS-CoV-2 positive, with a negative predictive value of 0.973. External validation was similar. This study provides a simple, practical, and robust screening model, COVID-19-REAL, able to identify populations at high risk for SARS-CoV-2 infection.</div>
</front>
</TEI>
<pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="MEDLINE" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">32727933</PMID>
<DateCompleted><Year>2020</Year>
<Month>08</Month>
<Day>13</Day>
</DateCompleted>
<DateRevised><Year>2020</Year>
<Month>08</Month>
<Day>27</Day>
</DateRevised>
<Article PubModel="Print-Electronic"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Electronic">1945-4589</ISSN>
<JournalIssue CitedMedium="Internet"><Volume>12</Volume>
<Issue>14</Issue>
<PubDate><Year>2020</Year>
<Month>07</Month>
<Day>29</Day>
</PubDate>
</JournalIssue>
<Title>Aging</Title>
<ISOAbbreviation>Aging (Albany NY)</ISOAbbreviation>
</Journal>
<ArticleTitle>Development and validation of a risk stratification model for screening suspected cases of COVID-19 in China.</ArticleTitle>
<Pagination><MedlinePgn>13882-13894</MedlinePgn>
</Pagination>
<ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.18632/aging.103694</ELocationID>
<Abstract><AbstractText>How to quickly identify high-risk populations is critical to epidemic control. We developed and validated a risk prediction model for screening SARS-CoV-2 infection in suspected cases with an epidemiological history. A total of 1019 patients, ≥13 years of age, who had an epidemiological history were enrolled from fever clinics between January 2020 and February 2020. Among 103 (10.11%) cases of COVID-19 were confirmed. Multivariable analysis summarized four features associated with increased risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection, summarized in the mnemonic COVID-19-REAL: radiological evidence of pneumonia (1 point), eosinophils < 0.005 × 10<sup>9</sup>
/L (1 point), age ≥ 32 years (2 points), and leukocytes < 6.05 × 10<sup>9</sup>
/L (1 point). The area under the ROC curve for the training group was 0.863 (95% CI, 0.813 - 0.912). A cut-off value of less than 3 points for COVID-19-REAL was assigned to define the low-risk population. Only 10 (2.70%) of 371 patients were proved to be SARS-CoV-2 positive, with a negative predictive value of 0.973. External validation was similar. This study provides a simple, practical, and robust screening model, COVID-19-REAL, able to identify populations at high risk for SARS-CoV-2 infection.</AbstractText>
</Abstract>
<AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Ma</LastName>
<ForeName>Jing</ForeName>
<Initials>J</Initials>
<AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Laboratory Medicine, The First Affiliated Hospital, College of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310003, China.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
</Author>
<Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Shi</LastName>
<ForeName>Xiaowei</ForeName>
<Initials>X</Initials>
<AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>State Key Laboratory for The Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, National Clinical Research Center for Infectious Diseases, The First Affiliated Hospital, College of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310003, China.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
<AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, Hangzhou 310003, China.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
</Author>
<Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Xu</LastName>
<ForeName>Weiming</ForeName>
<Initials>W</Initials>
<AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Taizhou Enze Medical Center (Group) Enze Hospital, Taizhou 318050, China.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
</Author>
<Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Lv</LastName>
<ForeName>Feifei</ForeName>
<Initials>F</Initials>
<AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Laboratory Medicine, The First Affiliated Hospital, College of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310003, China.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
</Author>
<Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Wu</LastName>
<ForeName>Jian</ForeName>
<Initials>J</Initials>
<AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>State Key Laboratory for The Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, National Clinical Research Center for Infectious Diseases, The First Affiliated Hospital, College of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310003, China.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
<AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, Hangzhou 310003, China.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
</Author>
<Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Pan</LastName>
<ForeName>Qiaoling</ForeName>
<Initials>Q</Initials>
<AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>State Key Laboratory for The Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, National Clinical Research Center for Infectious Diseases, The First Affiliated Hospital, College of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310003, China.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
<AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, Hangzhou 310003, China.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
</Author>
<Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Yang</LastName>
<ForeName>Jinfeng</ForeName>
<Initials>J</Initials>
<AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>State Key Laboratory for The Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, National Clinical Research Center for Infectious Diseases, The First Affiliated Hospital, College of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310003, China.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
<AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, Hangzhou 310003, China.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
</Author>
<Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Yu</LastName>
<ForeName>Jiong</ForeName>
<Initials>J</Initials>
<AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>State Key Laboratory for The Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, National Clinical Research Center for Infectious Diseases, The First Affiliated Hospital, College of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310003, China.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
<AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, Hangzhou 310003, China.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
</Author>
<Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Cao</LastName>
<ForeName>Hongcui</ForeName>
<Initials>H</Initials>
<AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>State Key Laboratory for The Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, National Clinical Research Center for Infectious Diseases, The First Affiliated Hospital, College of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310003, China.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
<AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, Hangzhou 310003, China.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
</Author>
<Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Li</LastName>
<ForeName>Lanjuan</ForeName>
<Initials>L</Initials>
<AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>State Key Laboratory for The Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, National Clinical Research Center for Infectious Diseases, The First Affiliated Hospital, College of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310003, China.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
<AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, Hangzhou 310003, China.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
</Author>
</AuthorList>
<Language>eng</Language>
<PublicationTypeList><PublicationType UI="D016428">Journal Article</PublicationType>
<PublicationType UI="D013485">Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't</PublicationType>
<PublicationType UI="D023361">Validation Study</PublicationType>
</PublicationTypeList>
<ArticleDate DateType="Electronic"><Year>2020</Year>
<Month>07</Month>
<Day>29</Day>
</ArticleDate>
</Article>
<MedlineJournalInfo><Country>United States</Country>
<MedlineTA>Aging (Albany NY)</MedlineTA>
<NlmUniqueID>101508617</NlmUniqueID>
<ISSNLinking>1945-4589</ISSNLinking>
</MedlineJournalInfo>
<SupplMeshList><SupplMeshName Type="Disease" UI="C000657245">COVID-19</SupplMeshName>
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<QualifierName UI="Q000097" MajorTopicYN="N">blood</QualifierName>
<QualifierName UI="Q000175" MajorTopicYN="Y">diagnosis</QualifierName>
<QualifierName UI="Q000473" MajorTopicYN="N">pathology</QualifierName>
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<MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D005260" MajorTopicYN="N">Female</DescriptorName>
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<Keyword MajorTopicYN="Y">risk stratification</Keyword>
<Keyword MajorTopicYN="Y">severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2</Keyword>
<Keyword MajorTopicYN="Y">suspected cases</Keyword>
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<Day>28</Day>
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<Month>06</Month>
<Day>25</Day>
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<ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">18941225</ArticleId>
</ArticleIdList>
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</PubmedData>
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<affiliations><list><country><li>République populaire de Chine</li>
</country>
<region><li>Zhejiang</li>
</region>
<settlement><li>Hangzhou</li>
</settlement>
<orgName><li>Université de Zhejiang</li>
</orgName>
</list>
<tree><country name="République populaire de Chine"><region name="Zhejiang"><name sortKey="Ma, Jing" sort="Ma, Jing" uniqKey="Ma J" first="Jing" last="Ma">Jing Ma</name>
</region>
<name sortKey="Cao, Hongcui" sort="Cao, Hongcui" uniqKey="Cao H" first="Hongcui" last="Cao">Hongcui Cao</name>
<name sortKey="Cao, Hongcui" sort="Cao, Hongcui" uniqKey="Cao H" first="Hongcui" last="Cao">Hongcui Cao</name>
<name sortKey="Li, Lanjuan" sort="Li, Lanjuan" uniqKey="Li L" first="Lanjuan" last="Li">Lanjuan Li</name>
<name sortKey="Li, Lanjuan" sort="Li, Lanjuan" uniqKey="Li L" first="Lanjuan" last="Li">Lanjuan Li</name>
<name sortKey="Lv, Feifei" sort="Lv, Feifei" uniqKey="Lv F" first="Feifei" last="Lv">Feifei Lv</name>
<name sortKey="Pan, Qiaoling" sort="Pan, Qiaoling" uniqKey="Pan Q" first="Qiaoling" last="Pan">Qiaoling Pan</name>
<name sortKey="Pan, Qiaoling" sort="Pan, Qiaoling" uniqKey="Pan Q" first="Qiaoling" last="Pan">Qiaoling Pan</name>
<name sortKey="Shi, Xiaowei" sort="Shi, Xiaowei" uniqKey="Shi X" first="Xiaowei" last="Shi">Xiaowei Shi</name>
<name sortKey="Shi, Xiaowei" sort="Shi, Xiaowei" uniqKey="Shi X" first="Xiaowei" last="Shi">Xiaowei Shi</name>
<name sortKey="Wu, Jian" sort="Wu, Jian" uniqKey="Wu J" first="Jian" last="Wu">Jian Wu</name>
<name sortKey="Wu, Jian" sort="Wu, Jian" uniqKey="Wu J" first="Jian" last="Wu">Jian Wu</name>
<name sortKey="Xu, Weiming" sort="Xu, Weiming" uniqKey="Xu W" first="Weiming" last="Xu">Weiming Xu</name>
<name sortKey="Yang, Jinfeng" sort="Yang, Jinfeng" uniqKey="Yang J" first="Jinfeng" last="Yang">Jinfeng Yang</name>
<name sortKey="Yang, Jinfeng" sort="Yang, Jinfeng" uniqKey="Yang J" first="Jinfeng" last="Yang">Jinfeng Yang</name>
<name sortKey="Yu, Jiong" sort="Yu, Jiong" uniqKey="Yu J" first="Jiong" last="Yu">Jiong Yu</name>
<name sortKey="Yu, Jiong" sort="Yu, Jiong" uniqKey="Yu J" first="Jiong" last="Yu">Jiong Yu</name>
</country>
</tree>
</affiliations>
</record>
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